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Título : Medium term growth forecasts : experts vs. simple models
Autor : Aromí, José Daniel 
Fecha de publicación : 2019
Editorial : Elsevier
Cita : Aromí, J. D. (2019). Medium term growth forecasts : experts vs. simple models [en línea]. International Journal of Forecasting, 35(3), 1085-1099. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.004 Disponible en:
Proyecto: Estudios de estados subjetivos en contextos microeconómicos 
Resumen : Abstract: We compare the medium-term GDP growth forecasts generated by experts to those generated by simple models. This study analyzes a large set of forecasts that covers 48 countries from 1997 to 2016. Out-of-sample exercises indicate that no noticeable difference in performance is observed for advanced economies. In contrast, in the case of emerging economies, model forecasts perform better than expert forecasts. In addition, similar patterns are found for a collection of forecasts from a different set of experts, which suggests that the reported regularity is prevalent. Further analyses suggest that the documented difference in performance can be explained by an optimism bias, excessive reactions to innovations in growth trajectories, and insufficient responses to the information contained in the current account balance.
ISSN : 0169-2070
Disciplina: ECONOMIA
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.004
Derechos: Acceso abierto. 2 años de embargo
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