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https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/8770
Campo DC | Valor | Lengua/Idioma |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Aromí, José Daniel | es |
dc.date.accessioned | 2019-09-19T19:35:39Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2019-09-19T19:35:39Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2019 | - |
dc.identifier.citation | Aromí, J. D. (2019). Medium term growth forecasts : experts vs. simple models [en línea]. International Journal of Forecasting, 35(3), 1085-1099. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.004 Disponible en: https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/8770 | es |
dc.identifier.issn | 0169-2070 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | https://repositorio.uca.edu.ar/handle/123456789/8770 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Abstract: We compare the medium-term GDP growth forecasts generated by experts to those generated by simple models. This study analyzes a large set of forecasts that covers 48 countries from 1997 to 2016. Out-of-sample exercises indicate that no noticeable difference in performance is observed for advanced economies. In contrast, in the case of emerging economies, model forecasts perform better than expert forecasts. In addition, similar patterns are found for a collection of forecasts from a different set of experts, which suggests that the reported regularity is prevalent. Further analyses suggest that the documented difference in performance can be explained by an optimism bias, excessive reactions to innovations in growth trajectories, and insufficient responses to the information contained in the current account balance. | es |
dc.format | application/pdf | es |
dc.language.iso | eng | es |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | es |
dc.relation | Estudios de estados subjetivos en contextos microeconómicos | es |
dc.rights | Acceso abierto. 2 años de embargo | * |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ | * |
dc.source | International Journal of Forecasting, 35(3), 2019 | es |
dc.subject | ECONOMIA | es |
dc.subject | PBI | es |
dc.subject | CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO | es |
dc.title | Medium term growth forecasts : experts vs. simple models | es |
dc.type | Artículo | es |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.004 | - |
uca.disciplina | ECONOMIA | es |
uca.issnrd | 1 | es |
uca.affiliation | Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Investigación Francisco Valsecchi; Argentina | es |
uca.affiliation | Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina | es |
uca.affiliation | Fil: Aromí, José Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina | es |
uca.version | acceptedVersion | es |
item.grantfulltext | open | - |
item.languageiso639-1 | en | - |
item.fulltext | With Fulltext | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Facultad de Ciencias Económicas | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Departamento de Investigación | - |
crisitem.author.dept | Centro de Investigaciones en Economía (CIE) [Finalización de actividades: 31/12/2021] | - |
crisitem.author.orcid | 0000-0002-4377-532X | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Facultad de Ciencias Económicas | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Departamento de Investigación | - |
crisitem.project.funder | Facultad de Ciencias Económicas | - |
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