Large current account deficits and neglected vulnerabilities

Abstract

Abstract: Using a sample covering 50 advanced and emerging economies over 1990–2017, it is found that large current account deficits are followed by systematic negative surprises in economic growth. This regularity is verified both in the case of advanced economies and emerging economies. In addition, large current account deficits are reversed significantly faster than what forecasters anticipate and are followed by low asset returns and drops in sentiment. The findings are robust to changes in the specification and do not seem to be explained by efficient learning dynamics. This evidence indicates that analysts are unable to incorporate the negative information transmitted by large current account deficits and has implications for the understanding of past economic events and for the design of macro-prudential policies.